#35 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche +110 over Dallas Stars, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - Stars off that grueling 7-game series with Vegas which just wrapped up on Sunday.  The Avalanche, on the other hand, have been off for a week as they hammered the Jets in 4 wins after dropping the first game to Winnipeg.  The Avalanche did allow too many goals in the first game of that series but that is inflating their defensive numbers.  Since losing that first game they have allowed only 2 goals per game last 4 games!  Also, the Avalanche have scored at least 5 goals in 6 straight games!  Colorado has fresh skating legs and they have the edge in the offensive zone and will push the Stars back on their heels from the drop of the puck in this one.  Last season the Stars were eliminated from the post-season by Vegas.  The Golden Knights also went on to win the Stanley Cup last year.  In other words, that victory over Vegas was a huge one for Dallas!  They got revenge and they beat the defending champs and the series took 7 games and they had to rally from a 2-0 series deficit.  When you analyze all these key factors plus the fact Dallas averaged only 2 goals in their last 6 games with Vegas while Colorado has practically been scoring at will, you can see why we like the Avalanche plenty in this spot.  Huge situational edge with the rested Avs taking advantage of a worn-out Dallas team right out of the gate in this one.  Colorado is the bet here. 

#910 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-145) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET - Dodgers are a 3 to 1 favorite on the money line but we get value by utilizing the run line.  The Dodgers have won 5 straight games and 12 of 14 games and 10 of those 12 wins were by 2+ runs.  LA has an average margin of victory of 4 runs in their 2 dozen wins this season!  The Dodgers have averaged 5.5 runs per game this season and are one of the top hitting teams in the majors!  The Marlins are one of the worst hitting teams in the league and they have been particularly bad under the lights.  In night games, Miami is scoring just 2.5 runs per game and their slugging percentage (yes, SLUGGING percentage) is only .275 in night games this season!  Compare that to a Dodgers team that has a slugging percentage of .487 and batting average of .292 under the lights this season!  HUGE difference and, speaking of huge variances, the Marlins have a weak bullpen while that is a strength of the Dodgers.  Also, LA is starting Yoshinobu Yamamoto and he is 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA this season.  The Marlins are starting Edward Cabrera and, though he gets a lot of strikeouts, he also gives up too many mistake pitches too.  That is why the Miami right-hander has been charged with 12 earned runs in 13 innings over his last 3 outings.  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -145 range with the Dodgers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the much stronger team at a fair price and 1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

#224210 ASA PLAY ON Paris Saint-Germain -1 -135 over Borussia Dortmund, Tuesday at 3 ET - This one in Champions League action. This is the 2nd Leg of this semifinals match-up. We like the value of the goal line here. PSG is a big favorite on the money line but by laying the 1 goal on the goal line here, we can get involved at a reasonable price. Paris Saint-Germain lost the first meeting 1-0 but had plenty of chances. They will cash in more of those at home! We feel certain of even more opportunities now that they are at home for this game. More opportunities and better finishes for the home club. They will also not want to risk this one being decided after regulation. So already trailing 1-0, they not only push for the 1 goal win but also a win by at least a 2-goal margin. Having the goal line at a reasonable price with PSG on their home field is a solid value here. We'll gladly take it! Take Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -11.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The well rested Celtics are going to make a statement in Game 1 as they catch a depleted Cavaliers team coming off a very tough 7-game series with Orlando. Boston was 2-1 against the Cavs in the regular season with the home team winning all three games. The C’s two wins at home were by 11 and 7-points. Boston is dominating at home with a 39-5 SU record and an average +/- of plus 15.2PPG. Cleveland on the other hand was an ‘average’ road team at 22-22 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.7PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Celtics are 25-3 SU, 15-12-1 ATS but they’ve won those games by an average of +14.4PPG. With a rest disadvantage the Cavs are 10-13-1 ATS, 13-11 SU this season. Boston was arguably the best team in the NBA the entire season ranking 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd defensively. The Cavs were great defensively all season long ranking 6th in DEFF, but offensively they averaged 1.152PPP which ranked 18th. Those numbers are very similar to each team’s playoff statistics as the Celtics have the 4th best offensive net rating and the 3rd defensive net rating. Cleveland is 4th in defensive net rating, but 15th (out of 16) in ONR. Cleveland expended a ton of energy in that first round series and won’t have enough in the tank to keep this Game 1 close. Bet Boston minus the double-digits.

#967/968 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 6:50 PM ET - The Rays are starting Aaron Civale here and he has allowed at least 5 earned runs in 3 straight starts!  Chicago is struggling at the plate early this season but they are one of the teams that hammered Civale in this rough 3-start stretch for him.  As for Tampa Bay, they have won 5 straight games and have scored 6.6 runs per game during this stretch.  The White Sox are starting Chris Flexen in this one.  He has been pitching well of late but this is still a tough road match-up for him against a surging Rays club.  Flexen did allow a .365 batting average on the road last season with an 8.69 ERA in those 13 outings away from home.  Tampa Bay has a bullpen 4.82 ERA which ranks near the bottom of the majors.  Chicago's bullpen has a  1.48 WHIP this season which also ranks near the bottom of the majors.  So this one involves question marks for both starting pitchers and both bullpens.  Also, the Rays have been hitting the ball well.  The White Sox off B2B low-scoring efforts but this followed Chicago scoring 5 or more runs in 4 of last 6 games!  That combination of factors above related to starters, bullpens and lineups will help to turn this into a high-scoring back and forth battle.  Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening.

ASA top play on OVER 221.5 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks Game 2 – 8 PM ET - We were on the Over in Game 1 and will come right back with the same bet here. In the opener of this series the Pacers forced the tempo and pushed the ball on every occasion. It looks to me like Pacer coach Carlisle is willing to sacrifice the first two games of the series and wear the Knicks out who don’t have a deep rotation. They then can maybe win both home games and even the series at 2-2, then let the chips fall where they may. The longer the series goes, the better for a much deeper Pacers team. Both teams shot exceptionally well in Game 1 with the Knicks hitting 54% overall, the Pacers hit 52%. The Knicks were willing to run in the second half with Indiana and we are betting that pace continues in Game 2. During the regular season the Pacers averaged 123.3PPG, the Knicks put up 112.8PPG. Defensively the Knicks were much better ranking 9th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.134PPP, the Pacers were 24th allowing 1.181PPP and 120.2PPG. The Pacers defense was bad in the first round against a Bucks team that was missing their two best scorers in Giannis for all 6 games and Lillard for 2 games. Indiana gave up 118, 113 and 115 in three games but were also able to score 120+ in four of the six games. New York was able to put up 108PPG against a 76ers team that was 11th in DEFF this season and shot 44% for the series 37% from beyond the Arc. In the 3 regular season meetings the Totals set on the games was 237.5, 235.5 and 248. Granted the Playoffs have been much lower scoring but that’s essentially 14.5-points in value with an Over bet here. The three reg season meetings finished with 236, 214 and 266 total points. The Knicks are on a 16-3 Over streak their last eighteen games, Indiana is on a 9-2 Over run themselves. BET OVER!