This article goes over teams with close wins and losses by a TD or less from 2015.  This is all according to the great Phil Steele who I value quite a bit.  I don’t think anyone in the industry works harder than he does on college football content.  The basis of this article is I take his hard work and data and turn it into useful sports betting advice.  His articles on close wins, and close losses are ideal for this because you have a handful of team that are going to have value in 2016 or no value in 2016 based on their luck from a year ago.

So let’s explain the concept that Phil Steel talks about in his magazine.  Essentially he looks at any teams with 3 or more net close loses or 3 or more net close wins.  What he constitutes as a close win or close loss is by a TD or less.  Looking back at history he has made a great case for the teams with 3 or more net close losses to have a better record the next year and teams with 3 or more net close wins have a worse record the next year.

Here are the exact stats for Net Close Losses.

As much as I love statistical data with percentages over 70, I like 80%+ much more and we have plenty of teams to choose from.

There were 5 teams with 4 or more net close losses in 2015 and have an 86% chance at improving.  These teams have major betting value!

1.) Army – 2-10 record & 6 net close losses – Army really improved down the stretch nearly coming back against Rutgers, and once again nearly upsetting a very good Navy team.  They have a young talented QB in Chris Carter that everyone is excited about based on how he played against Rutgers and Navy to close out the season.  Overall this team has 78% of their production returning from last year with 85% on defense.  They should be in the hunt for a bowl game in my opinion and a shot at defeating Navy who has to regroup after losing Keenan Reynolds.  Circle this game – They play Duke On October 8th and should be huge under dogs.  Duke is on our over valued list with 3 net close wins.

2.) Nebraska – 5-7 record 1-0 in bowl, & 4 net close losses – This was an under value team all year and we backed them pretty hard down the stretch and it paid dividends.  This team had heartbreak after heartbreak a year ago in Mike Riley’s first year.  This offense should be fun to watch with 94% of the production returning led by Tommy Armstrong Jr.  Circle this game – Back them early, because as soon as they get a few wins the hype will be at Nebraska.  They play Northwestern on Steptember 24th on the road and should be under dogs, but I think they win that game outright.  Northwestern was very lucky last year with 5 net close wins.

3.) Boston College 3-9 , & 4 net close losses –  The BC defense was legit last year and they came close so many times if the offense could just do a little they could have been in a bowl game.  BC returns 81% of their experience which includes 92% on offense which could be a bad thing.  BC is a team that almost beat Notre Dame on the road, but also a team that lost in embarrassing fashion against Wake Forest on October 3rd at home 3-0.  You have to watch this video to believe how that game ended:

Tune in at 1:08:

Circle this game – Nothing to really circle I really will be interested in game #1 on September 3rd when they face off against Georgia Tech who is next on our list.

4.) Georgia Teach 3-9, & 4 net close loses –  Georgia Tech was supposed to be great last year and they weren’t.  It was a very bad season even with 4 net close loses.  They were supposed to be great on defense with everyone back a year ago, but they ranked 95th in yards per play allowed.  This season they bring back just 42% of the defensive production, but the offense will bring back 97% which could be exciting.  Games to circle –   They play Duke and Georgia who are both on our net close win list, but they don’t do so until later in the season and by then there is no value from previous season so it’s hard to predict, but I would wager Georgia Tech is back in the mix in the ACC this year.

5.) South Carolina – 6-6, & 1-0 Bowl with 4 net close loses – We spoke about South Carolina with their head coaching move in our last podcast.  I’m really not a big fan of Will Muschamp, and honestly I don’t think Vegas will be either, but this team showed promise late int eh season with a win at Florida, making Clemson sweat a little and then defeating Miami int he bowl game. They only return 4 starters on offense with 8 returning on defense so they are bound to stay in games with Muschamp’s defensive style I just don’t like the offense, but nonetheless.  Circle this game – Week 3 they are at Georgia and will likely be big under dogs depending on what they do against North Carolina and Kentucky to open the season.  Georgia is on our net close win list.

Here are the exact stats for Net Close Wins

Let’s take a look at last year’s six teams with 4 or more net close wins.  These are teams we will look to fade early in the 2016 season.

1.) TCU – 11-2, with 5 net close wins – TCU only returns 48% of their production from last year so it will be interesting to see what kind of respect they get going into week #2 against Arkansas.  Their star QB is gone in Trevone Boykin as well is their star receiver in Doctson, but they do get Kenny Hill transferring over from Texas A&M and they have one hell of a coach, but despite all of that I will look to back Arkansas in week 2 if the price is right.  I’m never high on Big 12 teams to begin with although I think now that they have a conference championship again that can only improve.

2.) Northwestern – 10-3, with 5 net close wins – The Big 10 got exposed late last season and Northwestern’s great season ended with a blowout bowl loss to Tennessee out of the SEC.  Northwestern does has one hell of a coach in Pat Fitzgerald, but this is going to be a transition year in my opinion as they return just 63% of their production with just 58% on defense.  Fitzgerald had his best defense a year ago and that really carried this team as they ranked 8th in yards per play allowed in the country.  Games to Circle – They host a talented Western Michigan squad to open the season if they had a Big Ten game to follow I would probably call for the upset as they are 6.5 point favorites and it’s definitely on my radar for a college football pick against the spread.

3.) Michigan State – 11-2, with 5 net close wins –  I think we saw that this team was a bit over rated when they lost to Alabama 38-0.  They got lucky several times including games against Oregon at home.  They only return 45% of their production from a year ago and will ask the defense to carry them.  Losing star QB Connor Cook and three starters on the offensive line including 2 All Americans is a lot to ask, but they have one of the best head coaches in the nation.  Circle this game – There really is not a game to circle here for betting advantages, but the game at Notre Dame will be extremely interesting in week 2 because they host Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin this year.  Their road games in Big 10 play are extremely easy so I see this team floating around 10 wins.

4.) Georgia – 10- 3 with 4 net close wins.  Georgia is getting a ton of pre-season hype and they will be a team I will look to fade early.  They are breaking in a brand new coach in Kirby Smart who comes over from Alabama.  Smart has never been a head coach before and the team only return 12 starters, but the running game should be strong again with the return of Nick Chubb.  Circle this game – The schedule is very easy until early October when they host Alabama.  I will look to fade them at home against South Carolina, because I think it will be a bit of a defensive battle.  South Carolina is also on our list of teams with net close losses.

5.) Florida Gators – 8-5 with 4 net close wins.  I actually really like the head coach Jim McElwain.  I think he gets the best out of this roster and nobody expected them to be in the SEC Championship game a year ago.  With that said there are only 8 returning starters so the hype of last season will likely fade.  Circle these games – I could see the game at Kentucky being a tough game with Tennessee and Ole Miss up next. They also play Florida Atlantic who had 3 net close loses last year the week before Florida State.

6.) Oklahoma State – 10-3 with 4 net close wins.  I had to fall on my sword with this team last year when I backed them I believe against Baylor and Oklahoma late int he season.  This team proved to be a bit fortunate in some games especially at Iowa State.  They almost lost their final 4 games, but instead it was just three.  The good news is they return 74% of their production from a year ago and they have an extremely easy early season schedule.  Their two toughest games come at the end of the season against Oklahoma and TCU on the road.  I can see this team losing 4 or 5 games, but they are in my college bowl predictions.

The post College Football Teams with Early Season Value appeared first on Sports Bet Capping – Where Records Don’t Lie.

College Football Teams with Early Season Value
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