This post was originally published on this site

Freddy Wills releases all of his premium content to the general public just minutes after a game starts.  All plays are documented in this way to ensure you of Freddy’s honesty and integrity.  Visit Freddywills.com for all of his content.

I looked at Fading Power 5 College Football Steam from 2015-2020  during Weeks 1 & 2, and the takeaway was to fade line moves of 2-3.5 points, in games involving the Power 5 those resulted in a 69-44 ATS mark,w hich is good for 61% ATS.

This time we are looking at the Group of 5 since 2015, and we have great results to share as if you blindly fade line moves of 2-3.5 points where the line moved specifically on the Group of 5 team playinga  P5 or another G5 team those teams went 22-31 ATS, so fading them you would have gone 31-22 ATS.  Combining that with the Power 5, you are looking at a combined record of 100-66 ATS, which is good for 60% ATS.  I’ll dive deeper on why this make sense, but let’s extract some of the data I was able to find.

Home Favorites – If you back the G5 team with the steam move of 2-3.5 points the home favorite actually went 6-4 ATS.  If the line moved 4+ points however they went 0-2 ATS, which hasn’t happened very often in the last 6 seasons during week 1 and 2. 

Away Favorites –  G5 away favorites with a steam move of 2-3.5 points went 2-6 ATS, and 1-3 ATS with a 4+ line move.  Betting on the home dog in those situations during week 1 & 2 resulted in a 9-3 ATS.  We currently have one on the radar for this year, and that’s New Mexico State +9.5, as the line moved from +7 to +9.5 as you can see below.

Home Dogs – Group of Five teams that steamed 2-3.5 points and still closed as a home dog.  This would be Akron+7 open to +5 as an example.  Those teams are 3-1 ATS, but if the line moved 4+ they were 0-1 ATS.  Very small sample here.

Away Dogs – This is the situation that was most common, because you have G5 teams on the road against P5 teams, so we are looking at the situation where that team went from a larger dog at open and closed at a smaller number, which would tell you that the away dog is the sharp side.  However, when we saw those moves of 2-3.5 points the G5 team actually went just 11-20 ATS, and it was much worse when that G5 team was playing P5 team.  Now whent he line moved 4+ points (Western MIchigan +21 to +16.5 for example), those teams actually went 6-2 ATS.

This makes logical sense, because it seems like it’s market manipulation where you have sports books unwilling to move the home favorite more than 2-3 points when they are confident the favorite is the right side, and we have seen those teams win with easy covers.  Now when the line moves more than that it seems like the books are desparate in a way and afraid, because they know the road dog is the right side.  Leans for Week #1 Miss State -23.5, and App State -10.5 unless they move down to smaller favorites.

The other thing I took away from while I was doing my reserach is that it seemed that if there was any big line move for the home favorite P5 team.  Example Michigan State -21 to -23.5, the G5 team actually covered.  Again, market manipulation seemed present where again the books were unwilling to make the favorite a larger favorite in fear of money on the dog side. 

I hope you enjoyed and found this article valuable.  If you did please share it or subscribe to my premium pick newsletter.  You’ll get 1 premium play that clients pay for at no cost to your inbox, once per week! See the 4 year pick history of this newsletter here.

Or… Pick up any of my premium packages below: 

Football All Access Package – +352K Career Profit – Guaranteed or $ BACK

NFL + NCAAF POD’s ONLY Package +321.15% ROI career – Guaranteed or $ BACK

NFL POD’s Only Package +185.36% Career ROI on NFL POD’s *70-35 Last 105 MAX Rated NFL POD’s

College Football POD’s ONLY Package +150.27% ROI Career NCAAF POD – Guaranteed or $$ BACK

NFL Season Pass (Includes NFL POD’s) – Guaranteed or 1 season is FREE

College Football Season Package – Guaranteed or 1 season Free

---

The post Fading Steam Move on G5 Teams Week 1 & 2 appeared first on Sports Bet Capping – Where Records Don't Lie.

Fading Steam Move on G5 Teams Week 1 & 2
Fading Steam Move on G5 Teams Week 1 & 2

This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 18th, 2021 at 1:40 amand is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.