Pittsburgh +14 -120 buy ½ 3.5% / Pitt +395 0.5% play
I think Pitt is worth a shot here on the money line as Miami is in a huge let down spot after their big game against Clemson. Kenny Picket, at QB for Pitt is probably and that makes me feel really good about this game. Pitt has lost back to back games as favorites, which is giving us some line value here. There is just far too much line value here as Pitt was -4.5 at home last year, which would make them a 1.5 point dog at Miami, but they are a 13.5 point dog. I don’t think D’eriq King is worth that many points, and I don’t feel Miami has proven that they are a large upgrade in the market to be getting this kind of respect. When you factor in that their defense ranks 41st in success rate (out of 75 teams), and their offense ranks 62nd in success rate. There are major red flags with this team. Rick Lashlee was another positive thing for Miami as the new OC, but let’s be honest he was the OC at Uconn just 2 years ago, enough said.
Pitt’s defense which ranks 3rd in ypc allowed, and has the guys up front to contain King just like Clemson did. Clemson held Miami to 200 yards of offense, and Pitt in this game last year held Miami to 208 yards of offense. Pitt already held Louisville in check as well as Cunningham who was held to 3 rushing yards on 13 carries. Pitt was +153 yards in that game, while Miami faced Louisville and was -31 yards. I mentioned King had faced just 3 top 20 defenses in his career at QB, and last week he faced his first top defense in Power 5. This week he’ll face another, and I expect he may struggle a bit. Pitt will have a shot to win this outright.