TCU -2.5 3.3% PLAY
I think TCU has the better offense ranked 54th in success rate compared to Baylor who ranks 85th. Charlie Brewer is still at Baylor, but it’s a new offense with tons of lost talent, and no support from the running game just 3.03ypc, they haven’t played any good teams compared to TCU who has arguably played 4 of the best teams in the Big 12. Brewer just 6 yards per attempt, and this defense is just as good as West Virginia who really shut them down. The only reason that game went to OT was because of countless West Virginia mistakes. I think it’s a bit hidden just how bad Baylor is in a shortened off season with just 3 games, COVID issues, players not wanting to play, HC Dave Aranda convincing them to come back. Just a lot going on here for Baylor.
TCU typically shows up for these in state games as it’s a huge recruit tool, and I like Max Duggan at QB, he had 3 INT’s in the game last year, but that was one of the better Baylor defenses in recent years. I know they rank 21st in success rate defense, but they really haven’t played anyone yet. Texas after a slow start really carved them up taking a 27-3 lead into the 4th quarter before taking their foot off the gas. I think TCU could win this one by a TD or more.