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2021 Power 5 Coaching Changes

In 2020 there many big names and big time programs who had coachign changes including 4 in the SEC alone.  We had a total of 12 Power 5 coaching changes, and most of them did it a very weird year of COVID-19 shortened off seasons and seasons.  Those coaches went 46-53 ATS overall, which offers no signicant stat, While they went 11-18 ATS as favorites, and 31-32 ATS as dogs.    

1st Year HC’s Against The Spread – Power 5

Over the last 6 years first year head coaches have gone 320-340 ATS. Almost exactly 50% ATS, which is not significant at all. However, when we dig deeper and look at these first year head coaches as under dogs they are 166-200 ATS. Fading these coaches as dogs would produce a 54.6% ATS mark, which is a lot nicer, but I wanted to filter this even more. Last year I mentioned that you would want to take the elite coaches with experience out of the “fade” role. In 2017 you’d take out Kirby Smart, Tom Herman, Josh Wilcox, Matt Campbell, Justin Fuente who went 23-10 ATS as a dog. I mentioned in 2018 that comparable coaches are Dan Mullen, Scott Frost, Jimbo Fisher, and Chip Kelly, who went 15-8 ATS, and last year if you take out guys wiht significant experience who are considered good caoches Mike Leach, Greg Schiano, Sam Pittman, combined for a 17-12 ATS record. The rest of the coaches over the past 3 years went 34-52 ATS as dogs which is 39% ATS.  So what coaches in 2021 do we back as dogs, and who do we fade?

Bryan Harsin (Auburn) – in his 9th overall year of coaching had great success at Boise State for 7 years where he went 47-41 ATS overall, but just 18-23 ATS as a home favorite at Boise, 1-1 ATS as a home dog, 21-12 ATS as an away favorite, and 3-4 ATS as an away dog.  Overall I believe Harsin under achieved as the HC of Boise where they perenally had more talent than the rest of the conference.  Harsin brings in an experience assistant coaching staff with MIke Bobo as the OC, and Derrick Mason the former coach at Vanderbilt who both have experience coaching in the SEC.  Mason was just 3-12 ATS as a home dog the past 4 years.  This was just an overall weird group of hires, and I would fade Auburn this year especially as an under dog where it may be tempting to back them.  Fade Auburn.

Shane Beamer – son of legendary coach Frank Beamer takes over as a first time head coach.  Beamer spent the past three seasons as the Assistant HC under LIncoln Riley, and was under another legendary offensive mind in Steve Spurrier at South Carolina from 2007 to 2010.  Overall this is a wait and see.  

Josh Heupel – Comes over from UCF in his 4th year as a head coach.  Transitioning from the G5 to the P5 is not an easy task, and we saw his predecessor Scott Frost really struggle at Nebraska.  Heupel at UCF went just 9-14 ATS the past two years at UCF, and was 9-8 ATS as a home favo, 1-0 ATS as a home dog, 7-8 ATS as an away favorite, and 0-0 ATS as an away dog.

Clark Lea – is a definite fade candidate as a dog and as a first time head coach.  Lea was the DC at Notre Dame for 3 years where he had superb talent, and he now takes over a Vanderbilt team where he will not have the same advantages.  Vanderbilt does return 17 starters, and typically will be a large underdogs this season.

Bret Bielema – is back in the Big Ten taking over for Illinois who has 18 returning starters.  Bielema always known for the ground and pound will return all of his leading rushers, and 4 returning starters on the offensive line for a team that ranked 40th in yards per carry last year.  Bielema spent the last two years in teh NFL, but before that spent 5 seasons at Arkansas in the rugged SEC East.  Bielema had a rough time at Arkansas, but he now goes back into the Big Ten where I believe he will benefit from his style of coach.  Back Illinois as a Dog.

Steve Sarkisian –Takes over at Texas for Tom Herman in what feels like a lateral hire.  Sark is in his 7th overall year as a head coach, and spent the last two years as the OC for Alabama.  He was the head coach at USC 2014-15 failes, Washington 09-13, failed, and as much as I root for Texas I believe Sark probably won’t be successful or live up to what Texas fans expect.  Fade Texas.

Lance Leipold – Leipold comes over from Buffalo where he led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game.  Leipold won six D-3 National Titles at Wisc-Whitewater, and he brings over his entire coachign staff.  Kansas will continue to be an underdog, but Leipold knows how to coach and was 10-3 ATS as a dog in 6 seasons at Buffalo, while he went 30-14-2 ATS overall over the last 4 seasons.  Back Kansas

Jedd Fisch – First time coach, besides being an interim at UCLA in 2017.  Fade Arizona

2nd Year Head Coaches Power 5:

Over the last 5 years Power Five Conference head coaches in their second year have gone a combined 328-313 ATS, and 144-122 ATS as an underdog. There were several 2nd year head coaches with huge upsets in 2018 including Purdue who upset OHio State as a 12 point dog on the road winning 49-20. California upset highly ranked Washington asa n 11 point dog on the road, and Texas upset Oklahoma also winning outright as a 7 point dog on neutral field.  In 2019 we saw Oregon State upset Cal as an 11 point dog, Arizona State upset a Top 5 Oregon team as a +14 dog, Tennessee had 4 outright upsets as a dog.  In 2020 Louisville nearly upset Notre Dame as a +16 dog, Georgia Tech upset Florida State as a 12 oint dog Kansas State upset Oklahoma as a +27 dog, TCU as a +9 dog all 4 of these coaches I listed on last year’s article of coaches who can make an upset.  So who are this year’s candidates for upsets? 

Lane Kiffin – proved last year that his offense can work in the SEC as a head coach.  Ole Miss will continue to be a dog agaisnt the best in the SEC, and I expect them to be live dogs in a couple of them. 

Mike Leach – I believe we may see an upset thi syear from Leach in his second year which gives a second year of recruiting and practice in this offense.  Miss State will be a home dog against LSU, Alabama, and road games at Memphis, Texas AM, and Alabama.

Eliah Drinkwitz – Went 2-1 ATS as a dog at home last year in his first year at Missouri, and will have plenty of opportunity to be a dog in 2021, with home games against Flroida and Texas A&M.

Jimmy Lake – I love Lake and was dissapointed he didn’t get more time to coach last year with just 3 games going 1-3 ATS.  It may be tough sledding with Washington the favorites in the PAC 12, but I expect them to be an underdog in week 2 at Michigan in what shoudl be an interesting game where I would take them to them outright to win.

Jeff Hafley – Did an excellent job in his first year as the head coach and went 2-1 as a home dog, and will have 17 returning starters.  I don’t really see too many exciting opportunities for BC looking at their schedule, but I expec tthem to make a run to pull an upset as a +7 or more dog.

Mike Norvell – Buy low on Florida State who had hype last year with Norvell coming over, but go 3-6 SU and ATS.  Worth noting was Norvell went 1-0 ATS as a home dog and is a +9 home dog in week 1.  With 17 returning starters, and Notre Dame being down this year I expect FSU to be a live dog here against Notre Dame. 

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The post Power Five Head Coaching Betting Value 2021 appeared first on Sports Bet Capping – Where Records Don't Lie.

Power Five Head Coaching Betting Value 2021
Power Five Head Coaching Betting Value 2021

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