Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Giants/Yankees OVER 8.5

The main reason for this play is the weather.  The wind is expected to be blowing out to left-center at 20 MPH at Yankee Stadium this afternoon with temps in the 70's.  I think both teams have plenty of success at the plate as a result to push this number OVER the total.

Clarke Schmidt has been moved up in the rotation due to injuries to several starters for the Yankees.  Schmidt posted a 5.03 ERA in the spring while allowing 11 earned runs and a pair of homers in 19 2/3 innings.

Alex Cobb is past his prime and on the decline.  He went 7-8 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in 28 starts for the Giants last season.  Cobb posted a 4.15 ERA in the spring while allowing 6 earned runs in 13 innings.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 5 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against New York.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

No. 3 Ranked Overall Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has absolutely CRUSHED the books over the past 6 years! He is riding a 3579-3105 Run L2029 Days on all premium plays that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $199,650! He was the No. 5 Ranked Overall Capper in 2022 as well with his $1,000/game players up $62,170 last year alone!

No. 1 Ranked Basketball Capper All-Time! Check the long-term results and you’ll see that Jack Jones has put together a MASSIVE 3613-3157 Hoops Run since 2012 that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in a WHOPPING $208,450! He has delivered SEVEN Top-7 Basketball Finishes L11 Years! (#1 2012-13, #2 2020-21, #2 2013-14, #3 2011-12, #4 2017-18, #5 2015-16, #7 2021-22)

No. 1 Ranked NBA Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has put together a 2450-2084 NBA Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $205,580! He is a 7-Time Top 10 NBA Capper (#1 2012-13, #2 2020-21, #2 2021-22, #3 2017-18, #7 2008-09, #9 2015-16, #10 2011-12) as well! He is also on a 740-589 NBA Run and a 305-241 NBA Run since the All-Star Break last season! He was the No. 2 Ranked NBA Capper in 2021-22 last season!

Jack Jones has FOUR Top-10 MLB Finishes (#5 2019, #6 2014, #6 2010, #4 2009) to his credit! He is riding a 283-235 MLB Run dating back to 2021 that has $1,000/game players up $35,100!

Jack has delivered a HOT 28-13 Run L11 Days which includes a 9-1 CBB Run and a 3-1 MLB Start to the 2023 season! This money train stays right on track with Jack's Saturday 7-Play Power Pack for $59.95! Leading the charge are FOUR 20* Top Plays in his 20* FAU/San Diego State Final 4 No-Brainer, his 20* Miami/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer, his 20* Clippers/Pelicans NBA No-Brainer and his 20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK! You'll receive 1 NBA, 2 CBB & 4 MLB plays in all upon purchase today with the first pitch at 2:20 EST this afternoon!

It would cost you roughly $265.00 to buy all seven plays separately, so YOU SAVE $205.00 with this 7-Pack! Sign up and bet with confidence knowing you are GUARANTEED PROFITS or Sunday's entire card is ON JACK!

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-133)

The Atlanta Braves have one of the best lineups in baseball and Spencer Strider is one of the best starters in baseball.  He went 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.995 WHIP last season with 202 K's in 131 2/3 innings and finished 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting.  He allowed only 7 homers all season and posted a 1.69 ERA while allowing just 3 earned runs in 16 innings in spring training.

The wind is going to be blowing out to right-center in Washington today at roughly 25 MPH, so keeping the ball down and missing bats like Strider does is going to be important.  He'll be up against one of the worst lineups in baseball in the Nationals, who traded away Juan Soto last year and are rebuilding.

Josiah Gray went 7-10 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.359 WHIP in 28 starts for the Nationals last season while allowing a whopping 38 homers in 148 2/3 innings.  He does not keep the ball down and is an extreme fly ball pitcher, which is bad news for him and the Nationals today with the wind blowing out.

The Braves are 42-16 in the last 58 meetings.  The Nationals are 16-53 in their last 69 games as a home underdog of +125 or more and losing by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Twins/Royals UNDER 8.5

The wind was blowing out in Game 1 of this series between the Royals and Twins and they still managed just two combined runs in a 2-0 Minnesota victory.  Now the wind will be blowing in from left-center at roughly 11 MPH in Game 2 Saturday, and it should be another pitcher's duel as a result.

Sonny Gray owns the Royals going 7-2 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.938 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  He faced them three times last season allowing just one earned run in 19 innings.  Jordan Lyles has posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in three career starts against the Twins.  He held them to one earned run in 6 1/3 innings in his lone start against them last season.

The UNDER is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pirates/Reds OVER 8.5

The weather is the main reason I'm on the OVER between the Pirates and Reds today.  The Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is already one of the most hitter-friendly fields in baseball.  That is amplified today with winds blowing out to center at 25 MPH forecasted.

Rich Hill went 8-7 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.303 WHIP while allowing 15 homers in 124 1/3 innings for the Red Sox last season.  Hill posted a 9.24 ERA and 1.737 WHIP in spring training this season while allowing 13 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings.

Nick Lodolo is a nice young prospect for the Reds after going 4-7 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in 19 starts last season. But he allowed 13 homers in 103 1/3 innings and is susceptible to the long ball just like Hill. Lodolo allowed two homers in 16 2/3 innings in the spring.

The OVER is 8-0-1 in Pirates last nine road games vs. a left-handed starter.  These are two young lineups with a lot of potential this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Brewers/Cubs UNDER 6.5

This is mostly a bet on the UNDER due to weather.  Temperatures will be in the 30's with 29 MPH winds expected to be blowing in from left-center at Wrigley Field today.  It's going to be nearly impossible for either team to hit home runs in these conditions.  These are two below-average lineups as well.

Brandon Woodruff is 2-2 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Cubs.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Chicago.  Justin Steele is 1-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in eight career starts against Milwaukee.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 18 innings in his last three starts against the Brewers.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Clippers/Pelicans NBA No-Brainer on New Orleans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are 1.5 games out of 6th place in the West and only 2 games ahead of 11th place.  They need these games like blood here down the stretch and are playing like it.  The Pelicans are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six wins by double-digits and their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas.

Speaking of running out of gas, the Los Angeles Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days after losing 94-108 in Memphis last night.  They will have nothing left in the tank for the Pelicans, who had yesterday off and will the fresher, more motivated team.  The Clippers are also without Paul George and Marcus Morris and are likely to be without Eric Gordon, who left the Memphis game with a hip injury.

The Pelicans simply own the Clippers, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings despite playing all three of those games on the road and pulling off two blowouts in upset wins as underdogs by 21 points each in their two meetings this season.  New Orleans is 40-17 ATS in the last 57 meetings, including 22-6 ATS in the last 28 home meetings.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

20* FAU/San Diego State Final 4 No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +2

I said going into the tournament that the FAU/Memphis winner would make a run to the Elite 8.  That's how high I was on both teams.  After backing Memphis in the Round of 64 against FAU, I have been on the Owls ever since.  They were fortunate to steal victory from the jaws of defeat in the final seconds against Memphis, and they have been riding that momentum and confidence ever since.

FAU was in a tough spot not being the cinderella against Fairleigh Dickinson, but managed to handle their business in a 78-70 victory.  They then came back and upset Tennessee 62-55, beating a Vols team that is very similar to this San Diego State squad.  And they made all the clutch free throws they needed to to hold off Kansas State in a 79-76 victory in the Elite 8.

FAU comes out of Conference USA, which is the best mid-major conference in the country.  That has been proven with C-USA teams going 17-1 SU in postseason tournaments this season.  Charlotte won the CBI, North Texas and UAB will play in the NIT Championship Game, and now FAU is in the Final 4.  The Owls have been more battle-tested than they get credit for playing in such a tough conference, and now with four consecutive wins in the NCAA Tournament to get here.

FAU has very few weaknesses.  They rank 24th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense.  They rank 25th in effective field goal percentage offense and 15th in effective field goal percentage defense.  They have five players on the court at all times that can hit 3-pointers.  Their four guard lineups are tough to tame, and versatile big man Vladislav Goldin (10.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 62.7% FG's) is a matchup nightmare.  They go nine deep and all seven guards shoot at least 32.3% from 3, and four of the top five shoot at least 36.6% from 3.

A lot has been made about San Diego State's 3-point defense, but they haven't faced a team that can shoot it like FAU and is as versatile.  I think the Aztecs have been very lucky to catch teams on 'off' shooting nights to this point with three wins by 7 points or fewer.  Creighton shot 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3, Alabama shot 3-of-27 (11.1%), Furman shot 6-of-26 (23.1%) and Charleston shot 5-of-24 (20.8%).  So the four teams they have faced have shot a combined 16-of-94 (17%) from 3 in this tournament.  That's good defense, but it's also a lot of luck.  I think their luck runs out against FAU.

Guard play wins in the tournament, and the Aztecs don't have the best guards.  Matt Bradley has been lost the last couple games and shoots only 40.1% from the field on the season, Darrion Trammell has a lot of heart but is undersized and shoots just 36.1% and Lamont Butler shoots 41.8%.  San Diego State is brutal on offense and goes on long scoring droughts, and one of those is going to be costly against FAU.  San Diego State ranks 223rd in the country in effective field goal percentage on offense.

Florida Atlantic is 11-2 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Owls are 10-0 ATS following two consecutive non-conference games this season.  The other three Mountain West teams all lost their first NCAA Tournament games and the MWC is now 4-13 SU & 4-13 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.  All four wins belong to SDSU this tournament.  I'll gladly side with C-USA over MWC in this game as FAU is the better team in my opinion with fewer weaknesses and should not be the underdog.  Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.

20* Miami/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -5

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.3 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.7 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

KenPom now has UConn as the No. 1 ranked team in the country based on all the data, even better than Houston and Alabama.  They have virtually no weaknesses, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective field goal percentage defense, 13th in 3-point percentage defense and 25th in block percentage defense.  Their completeness has really shown up in the Big Dance.

The Huskies have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament while covering those four games by an average of 17.8 points per game.  They won by 24 over Iona as a 9.5-point favorite, by 15 over St. Mary's as a 4-point favorite, by 23 over Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite and by 28 over Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite.

Miami needed a 9-point comeback in the final 5 minutes to beat Drake and a 13-point comeback in the final 12 minutes to beat Texas.  They did dominate both Houston and Indiana, and I take nothing away from them for those two victories.  No question Miami has the best trio of guards in this tournament, but opponents haven't exploited their biggest weakness, which is their defense, especially on the interior.

Drake, Indiana and Texas were all pretty weak on the interior at least defensively.  Texas was without its best big man in Dylan Disu, who was their best player dating back to the start of the NCAA Tournament.  UConn ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebound rate grabbing 38.5% of its own misses.  Miami ranks 104th in adjusted defense, 207th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 179th in allowing offensive rebounds.  The Hurricanes will finally get punished for their defensive flaws in the Final 4.

Miami only has one productive big man in Norchad Omier, and he isn't going to be able to contain the three big men of UConn.  We saw how much Drew Timme struggled against them for Gonzaga and got into foul trouble and fouled out.  Omier will likely get into foul trouble in this one as UConn will keep attacking him with these big men, plus drives to the rim.  The Hurricanes are doomed if he gets in foul trouble, and probably doomed even if he doesn't as it's just too tall a task to ask of him to try and hang in the paint with UConn.  The Huskies are 28th in average height while the Hurricanes are 224th.

UConn is 15-0 SU & 14-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. Clearly, the Big East was better than it got credit for this season.  The Huskies are only 5-point favorites here while Houston was an 8-point favorite over Miami.  Again, KenPom has the Huskies as the better team than Houston, so comparing past lines there's value here with the favorite.  Bet UConn in the Final 4 Saturday.