Detroit vs Cleveland State
8-Unit bet on winless Detroit getting 12 points and is valid as long as they remain a double-digit underdog.

Betting on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are getting outscored by 12 or more points per game and is coming off a game in which there was 115 or fewer combined points scored has earned an 84-37 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Illinois vs Rutgers
8-Unit bet on Rutgers using the money line if the spread is less than 2.5 point favorite.

Betting on teams priced between the 3’s that have led at the half by six or more points in each of their past three games and facing a foe that scored 75 or more points in each of their last three games has earned a 78-47-3 ATS record for 62.4% winners since 2015.

NY Islanders vs Florida Panthers
8-Unit Best on the Islanders using the money line currently priced at +154.

Betting on road dogs between 100 and 180 on the money line that have allowed four or more goals in each of their last two games and facing an opponent that allowed no more than a single goal in their previous game has gone 115-123 averaging a +140 wager and earning a 15% ROI since 2011.

Louisville vs FSU
ACC Championship
8 ET | 8-Unit Best Bet on FSU minus the point.

FSU is not a team based on a star quarterback. They are a complete team and no one talks about their defense that ranks 8th nationally allowing 17.1 PPG and 7th posting a 0.252 points per play allowed ratio. They are the BEST passing defense in the nation allowing 47% completions and 8th with a 9.08% sack percentage. It will be the defense that will get the job done and limit Louisville’s offensive production.

FSU is 8-1 when facing an above average passing team completing 64% or more of their passes.

[QB] Tate Rodemaker (Head) - Doubtful () [12/01/2023] => Rodemaker is tending to a head injury, and it is unlikely that he will take on Louisville in the ACC Championship game. So, Brock Glenn is likely to start under center for the Seminoles and he is an outstanding talent and athlete with size at 6-3 and 220 pounds and a huge arm. Four-star prospect ranked as No. 13 quarterback nationally and No. 7 overall prospect in Tennessee by 247Sports…rated as country’s 15th-highest quarterback prospect by Rivals, 17th by ESPN and 25th by On3…made Elite 11 Finals in summer of 2022…accounted for more than 4,500 yards of total offense and 68 touchdowns during prep career…passed for 3,928 yards and 57 touchdowns with only 13 interceptions and added 654 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns…led Lausanne to eight wins and advanced to quarterfinal round of Tennessee High School Division II Class AA playoffs his senior season…was 74-of-126 passing for 1,413 yards and 18 touchdowns and added 443 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 9.8 yards per carry…led Lynx to semifinal round of state playoffs and nine wins in 2021…completed 97 of 155 passes for 1,576 yards and 23 touchdowns…also rushed for 161 yards and three touchdowns on 31 carries…played six games his sophomore year, passing for 912 yards and 15 touchdowns and rushing for 28 yards on 12 carries…was 1-of-1 passing for 27 yards and rushed for 22 yards in one appearance as a freshman.

Iowa vs Michigan
8:00 EST | FOX
Big Ten Championship
8-Unit best Bet on Iowa as long as they are 20 or more-point underdogs.
A small sprinkle with pizza money using the money line is worth it.

I also like betting over the Iowa Team Total for 5-Units.

Iowa is on a 6-0 ATS win streak when away from home and having allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game; 18-7 on the road and when coming off a win by 6 or fewer points. Iowa head coach Ferentz is 38-19 ATS in games with a posted total of 42 or fewer points; 40-18 ATS when facing an elite passing team averaging 8 or more YPPA. Iowa is 20-23 SU and 26-14-3 ATS when playing with triple revenge and 16-9-3 ATS when taking on a conference foe and 8-2 ATS since 2014.

Back in 2016 on November 12, Iowa as priced as a 24-point underdog to Michigan, and they defeated them 14-13 and the score at the half was 10-8 Michigan. Michigan got out to a 10-0 lead, then Iowa scored on a safety and added a TD, but failed to convert the 2-pointer. In the second half Iowa added a FG to take a 11-10 lead. Michigan followed q with a FG with 9 minutes left in the game and then place kicker Duncan hit a 33-yard FG on the last play of the game to win it. Think history repeats?

It is a long shot for Iowa to pull off the upset and there is defense will have to play their best game yet this season. The four defenses in the nation based on my power ratings are in the Big Ten and Iowa is one of them. Iowa ranks 4th in scoring defense allowing 12.2 PPG, tops with a 0.171 opponent points per play ratio, second allowing just 3.9 yards per play, second allowing 5.0 yards per pass. They play smart and rank third averaging 3.3 penalties per game. Michigan is also a great defense, but if Iowa can force Michigan into second and third and long yardage situations, they are going to keep the game close and get into the fourth quarter with a single score margin. At that point, who knows what could happen. Iowa may not need their offense to be productive if they generate turnovers and perhaps even get a pick six. That is a lot to ask for if the game was priced at pick-em, but it’s not and we are getting 22 points to assume the risk.

SMU vs Tulane
American Athletic Championship
4:00 ET | ABC
8-Unit bet on Tulane minus the three points and is good up to 4.5 points, but that is unlikely to occur.

Betting on a team that has covered the spread by 50 or more points over their past 5 games both teams have won 80% or more of their games and the total of the game is 45 or more points has earned a 54-25-3 ATS mark for 68.4% winning bets since 2015.

From the predictive model, we learn that Tulane is 62-14 SU and 57-19 ATS for 75% winning bets when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. SMU is 16-94 SU and 27-83 ATS for 24.5% winning bets when allowing 24 or more points and having the same or more turnovers.

Iowa vs Michigan
8:00 EST | FOX
Big Ten Championship
8-Unit best Bet on Iowa as long as they are 20 or more-point underdogs.
A small sprinkle with pizza money using the money line is worth it.

I also like betting over the Iowa Team Total for 5-Units.

Iowa is on a 6-0 ATS win streak when away from home and having allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game; 18-7 on the road and when coming off a win by 6 or fewer points. Iowa head coach Ferentz is 38-19 ATS in games with a posted total of 42 or fewer points; 40-18 ATS when facing an elite passing team averaging 8 or more YPPA. Iowa is 20-23 SU and 26-14-3 ATS when playing with triple revenge and 16-9-3 ATS when taking on a conference foe and 8-2 ATS since 2014.

Back in 2016 on November 12, Iowa as priced as a 24-point underdog to Michigan, and they defeated them 14-13 and the score at the half was 10-8 Michigan. Michigan got out to a 10-0 lead, then Iowa scored on a safety and added a TD, but failed to convert the 2-pointer. In the second half Iowa added a FG to take a 11-10 lead. Michigan followed q with a FG with 9 minutes left in the game and then place kicker Duncan hit a 33-yard FG on the last play of the game to win it. Think history repeats?

It is a long shot for Iowa to pull off the upset and there is defense will have to play their best game yet this season. The four defenses in the nation based on my power ratings are in the Big Ten and Iowa is one of them. Iowa ranks 4th in scoring defense allowing 12.2 PPG, tops with a 0.171 opponent points per play ratio, second allowing just 3.9 yards per play, second allowing 5.0 yards per pass. They play smart and rank third averaging 3.3 penalties per game. Michigan is also a great defense, but if Iowa can force Michigan into second and third and long yardage situations, they are going to keep the game close and get into the fourth quarter with a single score margin. At that point, who knows what could happen. Iowa may not need their offense to be productive if they generate turnovers and perhaps even get a pick six. That is a lot to ask for if the game was priced at pick-em, but it’s not and we are getting 22 points to assume the risk.

Louisville vs FSU
ACC Championship
8 ET | 8-Unit Best Bet on FSU minus the point.

FSU is not a team based on a star quarterback. They are a complete team and no one talks about their defense that ranks 8th nationally allowing 17.1 PPG and 7th posting a 0.252 points per play allowed ratio. They are the BEST passing defense in the nation allowing 47% completions and 8th with a 9.08% sack percentage. It will be the defense that will get the job done and limit Louisville’s offensive production.

FSU is 8-1 when facing an above average passing team completing 64% or more of their passes.

[QB] Tate Rodemaker (Head) - Doubtful () [12/01/2023] => Rodemaker is tending to a head injury, and it is unlikely that he will take on Louisville in the ACC Championship game. So, Brock Glenn is likely to start under center for the Seminoles and he is an outstanding talent and athlete with size at 6-3 and 220 pounds and a huge arm. Four-star prospect ranked as No. 13 quarterback nationally and No. 7 overall prospect in Tennessee by 247Sports…rated as country’s 15th-highest quarterback prospect by Rivals, 17th by ESPN and 25th by On3…made Elite 11 Finals in summer of 2022…accounted for more than 4,500 yards of total offense and 68 touchdowns during prep career…passed for 3,928 yards and 57 touchdowns with only 13 interceptions and added 654 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns…led Lausanne to eight wins and advanced to quarterfinal round of Tennessee High School Division II Class AA playoffs his senior season…was 74-of-126 passing for 1,413 yards and 18 touchdowns and added 443 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 9.8 yards per carry…led Lynx to semifinal round of state playoffs and nine wins in 2021…completed 97 of 155 passes for 1,576 yards and 23 touchdowns…also rushed for 161 yards and three touchdowns on 31 carries…played six games his sophomore year, passing for 912 yards and 15 touchdowns and rushing for 28 yards on 12 carries…was 1-of-1 passing for 27 yards and rushed for 22 yards in one appearance as a freshman.

Alabama vs Georgia
SEC Championship
10-UNIT BEST BET Over the posted total
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
4:00 ET | CBS
Georgia -6 | 54.5-point total

The Over bet for this conference championship game is backed by one of the best betting algorithms in my database consisting of more than 5000 money-making algorithms. This one has earned a 21-9-1 Over record good for 70% winning bets since 2006. The requirements are as follows:

§  Bet the Over in a conference championship game.

§  The total in the game exceeds average of both team’s points allowed by at least 20 points.

Now, if we drill down a bit further into the database and filter games that had a total of fewer than 60 points the Over has produced a perfect 9-0 record. Georgia and Alabama rank first and second in the SEC allowing 15.8 and 17.9 points per game respectively. Their defenses combine for 33.7 points per game which is 20.8 points below the posted total of 54.5 points. The Under may gain some steam from the public given that the defenses are the best in the conference and among the best nationally. So, even if this points differential falls to -19 or fewer points (52.5-point total) know that the system still has produced a money-making 10-3 Over record good for 77% winning bets.

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders
1:00 ET | FOX
FedEx Field
8-Unit Best Bet OVER the posted total currently priced at 49.5 points and is valid up to and including 51.5 points.

The weather in the DC region is not going to be a factor in this game and current forecasts are for no rain to start to the game. Temps are milder than normal for this time of year.

The Commanders rank last or near last in 10 of my defense power ratings. They rank last in scoring defense, points per play allowed, TDs allowed per game, third-worst in passing yards allowed per game. Miami ranks second in scoring offense, first in offensive yards per game, first in points-per-play, first in yards gained per play, first in red zone scoring percentage, first in TDs scored per game. Get the point?

Betting on the Over in a game priced between 42.5 and 49 points that features a road team scoring at least 28 PPG on the season and is coming off two consecutive games in which they allowed 14 or fewer points in each one has produced a highly profitable 22-7 for 76% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If our road team is the favorite, the Over has gone 20-6 for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons. Plus, if we increase the PPG to 30 PPG, this system has gone 11-4 OVER for 73% winning bets for the base part of this system.

San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles
4:25 PM EST | FOX

Lincoln Financial Field
5-Unit best bet on the OVER 48 points and is valid up to 49.5 points

This is game 4 of the 6-game gauntlet of having to facing winning record teams, who are also playoff and divisional contenders. The game will be the third one in the past 13 days and coming off the OT and come from behind win over the Bills last Sunday adds the fatigue factor the Eagles team is dealing with. However, the entire betting world is on the 49ers and I did put out a betting angle and breakdown supporting the 49ers earlier the week on many shows including ESPN Syracuse. My appetite to bet the 49ers has been reduced to a tepid one to say the least as I find it extremely difficult to fade this Eagles team is 28-2 with Hurts under center. They may be getting smoked in games in the box score, but the style points just do not matter to a team that is 10-1 and has will to win second to none. Yet, the total in this game is the opportunity presented by the models.

Betting on the Over in a game priced between 42.5 and 49 points that features a road team scoring at least 28 PPG on the season and is coming off two consecutive games in which they allowed 14 or fewer points in each one has produced a highly profitable 22-7 for 76% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If our road team is the favorite, the Over has gone 20-6 for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans
1:00 ET | CBS
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
8-Unit Best bet OVER the posted total of 47.5 points and is valid up to 48.5 points.

This is the highest total each of these teams have played in and stands to reason given the various matchups favoring a much higher scoring affair than is expected.

Betting on the Over in a game with a total priced at 47 or more points with one of the teams (Texans) coming off a three or fewer point loss to a divisional foe and with the game taking place in December has earned a solid 24-11-1 for 69% winning bets since 1996.

Betting the Over in a game with a total priced between 45 and 49.5 points that is coming off a loss of fewer than 7 points to a divisional foe and with the game taking place in the second half of the season has earned a 31-13-1 record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints
Caesars Superdome
1:00 ET | FOX
Lions -4.5 | 47.5-point total

Betting on teams that have won 60% or more of their games after having played at least 8 games and is coming off a home loss have gone 63-28 SU and 61-28-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

The Lions defense has been getting better each week with the exception of the Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers. However, winning teams at this point of the season refocus after a humiliating home loss and get back on track. The Lions defense ranks 11th in the NFL having allowed 1038 yards after the catch or 94 yards per game this season.

On offense the Lions have been outstanding in the passing game ranking 6th with 1,411 yards gained after the catch. I do not see the Saints being able to contain the Lions ariel attack and see the Lions winning this one fairly easily.

Longwood vs Morgan State
8-Unit On Longwood minus the 10 points and is valid up to 11.5 points.

From the predictive model, we learn that Longwood is 10-2 Ats when scoring 75 to 80 points and MS is just 1-8 ASTS when allowing 75 to 80 points over the last three seasons.

Betting on favorites between -4.5 and -11.5 points that have won each of their last three games by double-digits and facing a foe that has trailed in each of their last three games at the half by 5 or more points has produced a 21-2 SU record and 16-6-1 ATS mark for 73% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.