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Freddy Wills Freddy Wills
#4 Overall Football Handicapper on the Sportscapping Network! NFL Max Top Plays on a 71-35 run since 2015 - 201-149 long term, and on a 182-131 (58% run in the NFL)!
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 22, 2021
Washington vs Arizona
Washington
-17½ -103 at pinnacle
Lost
$103.0
Play Type: Premium

Washington -17.5 2.2% play 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 22, 2021
Memphis vs Central Florida
Central Florida
+115 at Mirage
Won
$115
Play Type: Top Premium

UCF +115 5.5% NCAAF POD

Let’s talk about the short rest for UCF? I’m not concerned, because they get so much energy from their home crowd, known as the “Bounce House.”  Memphis does have an extra couple days to prepare for this game, but I think traveling down to UCF where it’s 80 degrees and over 60% humidity is going to be a challenge.  Memphis has really struggled on the road in front of crowds of 19,500, 28,500, and 17,500 this season, and they’ll see 42,000 in a loud stadium on Friday night at the Bounce House.  Memphis QB Seth Henigan is also a true freshman, and while he’s been lights out this is just a different kind of challenge in my opinion.  Henigan also hurt his arm in the last game and he’s listed as probable, but you have to at least think it impacts him some.  Memphis also ranks 90th in percentage of offensive possessions ending in  TO, while UCF’s defense ranks 33rd in forcing those turnovers, which is a HUGE edge in this game.  UCF also much better at stopping the run at home allowing 2.34 ypc compared to the 5.65 on the road, and Memphis is averaging 2.5 ypc less in their losses. 

UCF’s offense without Gabriel really needs to establish the run.  They rank 22nd in ypc, and 4th in epa run offense and they get to go up against a Memphis defense that ranks 92nd in epa run defense, and 94th in epa pass defense.  I just don’t understand how Memphis is favored here.  Isiah Bowser came back last game for UCF and will go here tonight.  Memphis has not faced a top 50 rushing offense.  Their average opponent rushing ypc rank is 92.16.  The best rushing offense they faced was Texas San Antonio and they gave up 205 yards and 3 TD’s.  They also gave up 235 yards to Tulsa on the road who ranks 111th in EPA run offense.  I think UCF can establish the run in this game.  It’s worth noting that Gus Malzahn is 30-3 since 2016 when his team runs for 200+ yards.  Mikey Keane is starting to improve and while he has 4 INT’s on the year he just had to face Cinci’s defense, and here he gets to go back home facing a Memphis defense ranking 98th in QB rating, 94th in epa pass defense, and 129th in TO percentage forced per possession, and he’ll have Bowser and the rushing attack backing him up.  Central Florida wins outright!

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 23, 2021
Kansas State vs Texas Tech
Kansas State
-105 at linepros
Play Type: Top Premium

Kansas State -105 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD

This is a max effort game for Kansas State who is the more desparate team having lost 8 straight Big 12 games, and Chris Kleinman’s seat has gotten hot.  However, they just lost to the 3 best teams in the conference in Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State.  They have actually owned Texas Tech winning 9 of the last 10 match ups, and I expect Texas Tech who is just one win shy of a bowl game already to be a little more content.

This is also the type of game Texas Tech loses.  They lose against opponents that can run the ball and take them out of their flow on offense.  The run defense has allowed 2.61 ypc in wins, and 7.37 in losses to TCU and Texas.  Kansas State is every bit in that mix of quality rushing offenses led by Deuce Vaughn who had 113 yards on only 16 carries in this match up last year.  Kansas State ranks 40th in ypc, and 63rd in epa rush offense, but they have done it against a tough schedule.  An average opponent ypc defense ranking 47th.  Their last 3 losses have come against Oklahoma State, 18th in ypc defense, Oklahoma 6th in epa run defense, and Iowa State 20th in epa run defense.  Texas Tech ranks 101st in ypc defense, and 109th in epa run defense and it doesn’t hurt that some of Kansas State’s rankings came when they were without Skylar Thompson for two games.  Even Kansas was able to run the ball against Tech 145 yards on 33 carries.

Texas Tech has a veteran QB in Columbi, but there is a reason he lost the starting job to transfer Tyler Shough.  Columbi needs the big play to put up points, and Kansas State’s defense, which has not been good against the pass at least ranks 37th in 20+ yard passing plays allowed.  I think Columbi gets a bit impatient and forces some passes here.  Kansas State also has beaten two top 50 passing offenses and held them to season low in points in Stanford and Nevada and they have only allowed 7 passing TD’s in 6 games.  Tech has shown some balance in the running game and that’s probably why they are favorites here, but it’s flawed.  4 out of the top 5 are outside the top 80 in epa run defense.  Kansas State ranks 52nd in epa run defense, and 28th in ypc.  Houston was the only other top 50 run defense, but their average opponent epa run offense faced was 102.2, so they’re flawed.  This is the best defense that Tech has played all year.

There is another advantage here for Kansas State and that is special teams where they rank 12th in the country compared to Texas Tech’s 100th ranking.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 23, 2021
Oregon vs UCLA
Oregon
+1½ -110 at Mirage
Play Type: Premium

Oregon +1.5 3.3% play

Both of these teams are pretty even statistically speaking, and both want to run the ball first. When I look at this game I feel the wrong team is favored and it’s due to recency bias.  You have UCLA who just won back to back road games and the most recent at Washington, and Oregon barely got by CAL, and lost to Stanford.  Both these teams are very good running the ball and good at stopping the run.  Oregon has done it and won against tougher competition, lets look at that.

Oregon has faced two run defenses similar to UCLA from a run defense perspective.  Ohio State and Fresno State, and they rushed for 6 TD’s including 269 vs. Ohio State.  Ohio State 24th in epa run defense against an average epa run offense ranking 76th.  UCLA ranks 30th in epa run defense vs. an average epa run offense of 76.  Oregon against their two opponents who are good at running the ball like UCLA, Cal and Ohio St.  They won both games and only gave up 1 rushing TD.  You may want to laugh at Cal, but they rank 7th in epa rushing offense, and I know it’s come against an average opponent epa run defense of 97th, but UCLA’s 21st ranked epa rushing offense came against an average opponent epa run defense ranking 83rd.  To put that in perspective Oregon ranks 13th, vs an opponent average epa run defense of 69.6.

UCLA has faced only one team even close to run defense as Oregon, and it was Fresno State.  That defense held UCLA to 117 yards, and UCLA lost the game.  UCLA has only faced one offense close to Oregon’s rushing attack, and that’s Arizona State with a mobile QB as well.  They lost that game at home 42-23, and Jayden Daniels had 45 yards rushing and I expect Anthony Brown can help his team the same.  Oregon in my opinion despite last year should control the game in the trenches.  I don’t trust UCLA’s QB to play a clean game, and Oregon is top 20 in limiting and forcing turnovers when we look at % of drives ending in a TO, where UCLA ranks 56th, and 57th.  Oregon with a lot of value here and is very much still in the playoff discussion and has more talent.  This just seems to be the type of game that HC Cristobal gets his players to step up for with Gameday in attendance on the day.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 23, 2021
Oklahoma State vs Iowa State
Iowa State
-6½ -110 at SC Consensus
Play Type: Premium

Iowa State -6.5 -120 2.5% play

We have an undefeated and #9 team in the country on the road against a 4-2 unranked team and they are a TD dog and they both play in the Power 5.  I’m going with the Iowa State side here as they are clearly the better team from a metric perspective.  Oklahoma State should have lost last week as they were down 17-3 with Texas in the red zone, and Texas threw a pick six with 5 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter, a 14 point swing in the game, and Texas just ran out of gas from the week before against Oklahoma as Oklahoma State scored 16 4th quarter points to pull the upset.  I have tremendous respect for Gundy and we have backed them several time already this year, but this is just not the spot in my opinion.

Iowa State’s two losses were very misleading and now they don’t look as bad as Baylor has really been great, and Iowa was just the #2 ranked team, and Iowa State outgained those two teams by 166 yards, and 194 yards.  Iowa State’s biggest issues have been special teams and TO margin, and it could hurt them again here, but I don’t think it will.  Iowa State is a very balanced team top 20 in all other categories and one of the few teams in the top 10 in epa/play offense and defense.

Oklahoma State’s offense ranks 95th in ypp offense, and 92nd in success rate, and while Jaylen Warren has been a beast running the ball they’ve gone up against a weak opponent defense ranking on average 74.2.  When we look at the defenses this team has played they have only faced one team that ranks top 50 in epa pass or run defense.  That was Baylor who ranked 36th in epa pass defense, but 77th in epa run defense.  Spencer Sanders in that game threw 3 INT, but Oklahoma State still escaped with the victory.  Iowa State is top 20 in both run and pass defense, and Sanders is going to have to be great to cover this spread.  This is just the third time in his career he’s facing a defense that is top 50 vs. the run and pass on average, and previous 2 games he has 2 passing TD’s and 3 INT. 

Iowa State’s offense is very experienced and they remember losing the last two years to Oklahoma State. I think they have a very good home field advantage and with a chance to “upset” a top 10 team the team is very aware of the spread and I think they will definitely want to cover it here.

SERVICE BIO

Season Awards: This network is one of the most competitive network of handicappers with over 90 professional experts.  2009 & 2011 I was the #2 handicapper for the entire year!  I also have had several top 10 finishes including, #1 NCAAF 2009, #1 NCAAF 2011, #2 MLB 2009, #5 NFL 2010, #6 NCAAF 2013, #7 NCAAB 2012, and #10 MLB 2011.   

My Promise To You: All of my information is 100% backed by a guarantee and is fully researched and supported by my in depth analysis for your betting confidence. I personally bet these plays too so it is only fair you understand my logic.

Who Am I: I have been wagering on sports for more than a decade and I've been doing it professionally for 5 years. In 2008 I started my own service and have been earning my clients an impressive return on investment which is solidified by multiple national handicapping season awards for MLB and College Football. This is something I take very seriously. That is why every single recommendation I make comes with a full in depth analysis for your betting confidence. I want you to know my logic behind ever one of my picks.

Best Moments: In 2011 I predicted Iowa State +28.5 over Oklahoma State on a Friday night, but not only did I predict and play the spread I also predicted Iowa State to win the game outright as a 22:1 under dog. Iowa State won in over time to shock the nation and knock Oklahoma State out of the BCS National Championship race. Aside from that I have profited in every single of every sport on my signature play of the day's (POD's).

My Motto: "The will to win is nothing without the will to prepare."