Nuggets @ Kings 10:10 PM ET

Game# 551-552

Play On: Kings -4.5

The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets have seeming got back into a groover of late after going into a short tailspin. The Nuggets are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and with an average victory margin of 9.7 points per game. Yet they find themselves as an underdog against a Kings team that’s coming off a 14-point home loss. Here’s the catch. Denver played last night in Phoenix and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days and 6th in 9 days. The Kings will be playing on 2 days of rest and this will only be their 4th game in 9 days. Additionally, that previously mentioned home loss to the Clippers snapped a 5-game home win streak for Sacramento. I look for them to get back on track tonight especially with a sizable rest advantage on their side. Give me the Kings minus points.

Iowa @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET

Game# 323-324

Play On: Iowa +22.5

Let me start by stating the obvious, Michigan is unequivocally the far superior team in this matchup as this current point-spread indicates. I just think this sets up for a potential flat spot for the undefeated Wolverines as it applies to covering this big a number. Michigan comes off a huge emotional when over bitter rival and then undefeated Ohio State this past Saturday. Awaiting them is a semifinal game in the College Football 4-team Playoffs. Sandwiched between is the formalityof playing in the Big 10 Championship game in which they’re installed as a better than 3-touchdown favorite against an offensively inept Iowa (10-2) team that averages a mere 18.0 points scored per contest. However, the Hawkeyes defense has been nothing short of excellent while holding opponents to 16 points or fewer in 11 of 12 games. Iowa’s defense will keep them in this contest for a long period of time and play a big part in staying inside of this huge number. Give me Iowa plus points.

Alabama vs. Georgia 4:00 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Alabama +5.5

Stop the press, Alabama is an underdog for just the 8th time since 2008 and they went a very profitable 5-2 SU&ATS in their previous 7 and all with Nick Saban as their head coach. Ironically enough 4 of those 7 games were against Georgia and they 3-1 SU&ATS in those contests. If the Crimson Tide has any chance of reaching the College Football Playoffs they absolutely must beat Georgia on Saturday. One of those wins came in the 2021 SEC Championship Game when they knocked off Georgia 41-34 as a 6.0-point underdog then only lose to the Bulldogs 5 weeks later in the National Championship Game 5 weeks later. That defeat put a halt to Alabama winning 7 straight over Georgia. This game goes right down to the wire. Give me Alabama plus points.

Oklahoma State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 309-310

Play On: Texas -14.5

Texas’ chances to reach the College Football 4-Team Playoffs are very real. Their first order of business is taking care of Oklahoma State, or every other scenario is moot without that transpiring. It wouldn’t hurt to have some style points while doing so which is namely winning by a large margin. A narrow victory will likely not be good enough to sway the committee. The Longhorns will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 41-34 loss at Oklahoma State last October. Oklahoma State had an impressive 5-0 SU&ATS streak earlier this season which included upsets of Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Since then, they’ve gone 2-1 with an inexplicable 45-3 blowout loss to UCF, allowed Houston (4-8) to give them all they can handle in a 43-30 win, and then last week needed overtime to beat BYU (5-7) at home. They also were blown out at home by South Alabama earlier this season. Give me Texas minus points.

Any College Football favorite of 3.0 or greater that’s playing with revenge in a conference championship game like Texas will be doing, resulted in those favorites going 7-0 ATS and with an average victory margin of 18.9 points per game. Give me Texas minus points.

Browns @ Rams 4:25 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Over 40.5

The Browns have played 5-0-1 to the under at home this season but 5-0 to the over on the road. Those 5 road contests had a combined average of 54.8 points scored per game. Statistically the Browns are extremely good defensively. But those numbers are askew when comparing their home and away splits. The same can be said for their offense production on the road which has been far better than compared to that on the road. The Rams offense is coming off a confidence building performance during last Sunday’s 37-14 blowout win at Arizona. They massed 457 yards of total offense in that contest with a very balanced attach which sw them gain 228 rushing and 229 passing. Give me this game to go over the total.

Panthers @ Buccaneers 4:05 PM ET

Game# 461-462

Play On: Buccaneers -3.5

Carolina is an awful 1-10 and has been an underdog in all 11 games this season but still is a money-draining 1-8-2 ATS. Furthermore, they’re 0-7 SU and 0-5-2 ATS when facing fellow NFC teams. Carolina has scored 15 points or fewer and gained 275 yards or less during each of their previous 5 games. The Panthers have failed to force a turnover in each of their last 3 games. They have a -7-turnover margin for the season while Tampa Bay is +5 in that category. The Bucs are a more than respectable 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS this season when facing a team that currently has a win percentage of .500 or worse. Despite their 4-7 season record, Tampa Bay is just 1.0 game behind New Orleans and Atlanta for the NFC South Division lead. This will only be the 4th time the Bucs are a favorite this season and they covered 2 of the previous 3 in that role. Give me the Buccaneers minus points.

Dolphins @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET

Game# 463-464

Play On: Over 49.5

Even the casual NFL fan is aware of how explosive the Miami Dolphins can be. This appears to be a prime spot for them to shine against a porous Washington defense which has allowed 29 points sor more in 8 of their 11 games this season. The Commanders offense has averaged an impressive 407.8 yards gained per game over their previous 5 contests. The only reason they scored just an average of 21.2 points per contest during that stretch is they committed 11 turnovers. They’ll be facing a Dolphins defense that allowed 27.3 points per game in contests played on the road or at a neutral site. Give me this game to go over the total.

Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 461-462

Play On: Colts -117 (ML)

Tennessee is coming off last week’s 17-10 home win over a 1-10 Carolina Panthers team. The bad news is that the Titans are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a win. The Titans offense has struggled mightily this season while scoring 17 points or fewer in each of the last 4, 6 of the previous 7, and 8 of 11 games this season. The Colts are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games and allowed just 13.0 points and 304.3 yards per contest. Indianapolis has also gone 4-1 SU&ATS this season in neutral site and away games. It’s also worth noting, the Colts Gardner Minshew is 5-0 SU&ATS in his career team starts as a road favorite with his teams winning by an average of 20.6 points per game. Give me the Colts as a money line favorite.

Falcons @ Jets 1:00 PM ET

Game# 455-456

Play On: Atlanta -130 (ML)

The Jets have gone an abysmal 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 and were outscored by a decisive margin of 18.0 points per game. New York has been anemic offensively over their previous 5 games while scoring 13 points or fewer on each occasion. Conversely, Atlanta has scored 23 points or more in each of their last 4 games and amassed 396 yards or more of total offense in 4 of the previous 7 contests.

Atlanta is coming off a 24-15 division win as a 1.0-point home underdog versus New Orleans. NFL non-conference money line home favorites coming off a SU underdog win versus a division opponent resulted in those money line favorites going 31-3 (91.2%). Those money line favorites outscored those 34 opponents by an average of 12.1 points per game. Give me the Falcons as a money line favorite.

Lions @ Saints 1:00 PM ET

Game# 453-454

Play On: Saints +4.0

The Lions have committed 7 turnovers in their last 2 games. During those contests they needed a miracle comeback to beat Chicago 31-26 and lost to Green Bay 29-22 as an 8.5-point favorite with both played at home. The Saints are coming off a disappointing 24-15 road loss as a 1.0-point favorite at Atlanta that dropped their season record to 5-6. However, New Orleans is in a tie for 1st place with Atlanta in a weak NFC South Division and has plenty of incentive heading into this match against an 8-3 Lions tea.

Any NFL home underdog of 5.5 or less with a losing record that’s coming off an away favorite SU loss and they’re playing after Game 7, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS loss, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1998. The home underdogs won those 8 contests by an average of 8.4 points per game.