FREE PICK: Colorado State Rams -3 
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 321

Should have bet this one early when the Rams were laying less than a field goal, but I still see a ton of value with Colorado State at -3. After failing to cover their first two games at home against South Dakota State and Vanderbilt, the Rams have cashed a winning ticket in each of their last 4 games. 

During this 4-game stretch they beat Toledo 22-6 as a 14.5-point road dog, only lost 14-24 at Iowa as a 24-point dog, crushed San Jose State 32-14 as a 3.5-point favorite and cruised pass New Mexico 36-7 as a 13-point favorite. As you can see, the books haven't exactly been on point with this team. 

For me, the biggest thing is the matchup. Colorado State's offense leaves a lot to be desired. They only average 24.7 ppg, 396 ypg and a mere 5.0 yards/play. However, some of that is that's how they are built. They won't to win with their defense. 

The Rams are giving up just 19.5 ppg, 287 ypg and 4.6 yards/play. They have allowing just 100 ypg and 3.0 yards/carry vs the run and opposing QBs are completing just 55.9% of their attempts. 

I just think it's going to be tough sledding for this Utah State offense in this one. On the flip side, this Aggies defense is one that Colorado State can have some success against. Utah State has been dreadful against the run this year. They are allowing 206 ypg and 5.6 yards/carry and that's vs teams who only average 146 ypg and 3.9 ypc. They are also giving up 61.3% against the pass and 6.5 yards/play overall. 

The only thing Utah State has going for them in this game is they are at home, but I just don't think the line is near enough for them to have a realistic shot at covering. So much would have to go right for the Aggies to keep this game close. Give me Colorado State -3! 

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40* (NBA) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Wizards -2.5) 

I think a lot of people were surprised with how good the Wizards looked in Wednesday's season opener. They laid it on a Raptors team that a lot of people came into the season thinking could be a surprise in the east. Washington won 98-83, outscoring Toronto 57-37 in the 1st half. 

I was not one of those people that were surprised. I gave out a free pick on the Wizards Wednesday. With triple-double machines Russell Westbrook getting traded to the Lakers, it just felt like everyone wrote this team off. 

It's not as bad of a roster as you think. They still have a top tier player in Bradley Beal who can shoulder the offense. The only other starter back with Beal is big man Daniel Gafford, who they got in a trade last year. They signed Spencer Dinwiddie away from the Nets, who only played 3 games last year after posting career highs of 20.6 ppg and 6.8 apg the season before. The other two starters are guys they got in the Westbrook trade in Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (also got a great reserve in Montrezl Harrell). 

The Pacers lost 122-123 on the road against the Hornets in an absolutely crazy game. Indiana's couldn't miss in the 1st half of that game and jumped out to a 75-59 lead at the half. They then managed to score just 13 points in the 3rd quarter and Charlotte all the sudden led 92-88 going into the 4th. Hornets got the lead up to 10, before the Pacers stormed back to take the lead. 

I just wonder if that game didn't take a lot of a depleted Pacers roster that is starting the season down two starters in Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren. Keep in mind they only used an 8-man rotation against Charlotte. 

I also just wonder if an awful Hornets defense didn't make this Pacers team look a little better than it actually is right now. Give me the Wizards -2.5! 

40* (NBA) - Suns/Lakers ESPN Sharp Money INSIDER (Under 223) 

It's a long season and one loss doesn't mean much, but no one wants to start the season poorly. I think there's going to be a sense of urgency for both the Suns and Lakers to play well and avoid starting 0-2 after upset losses in their season openers. LA got 30+ points from LeBron and AD and still lost 114-121 at home to the Warriors. Phoenix lost by double-digits at home 98-110 to the Nuggets. 

You also got to factor in with how big a public team the Lakers are and this being a game that is televised on ESPN, it's going to get a decent amount of traffic. I think these big games can see some inflated totals and this definitely feels high to me. 

The Lakers are simply too old to play a run and gun style for 82 games and adding Westbrook doesn't change that. You also got some chemistry issues with Westbrook trying to carve a role in an offense where he's not going to be the primary ball handler. It wasn't pretty in his debut, as he scored just 8 points with a mere 4 assists and 5 rebounds. 

Suns are also a team that doesn't like to play fast. Phoenix T-26th in pace of play last year and basically brought the same roster back. These are also two teams that ranked in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency last year. Give me the UNDER 223! 

50* (NBA) Friday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -1) 

I was dead wrong with Brooklyn in Tuesday's season opener at Milwaukee. I thought the Bucks would come out fat and happy and instead they played like they were the team with something to prove. Unfortunately these great situation spots can't come through every time. 

The Nets didn't help matters by not playing up to their potential. They got outscored 37-25 in the 1st quarter and 30-19 in the 4th quarter. I know they are without Kyrie, but the duo of Harden and Durant is still lethal. I just don't see this team starting the season 0-2. 

The 76ers are an interesting team, as they have all that off the court drama going on with Ben Simmons. Philly is still a playoff team without Simmons if Embiid is healthy, but not a team you think can do much in the postseason. They won their season opener 117-97 against a Pelicans team that was without Zion. 

That was the good news for the 76ers. One game into the season and Joel Embiid is already showing up on the injury report with a sore knee. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he doesn't play in this game. Philly hasn't hesitated in years past resting him when he's not at full strength and it would makes sense to do it this early in the year. 

With or without Embiid on the floor in this game, I will go down swinging with Brooklyn at this price. Give me the Nets -1! 

40* (CFB) - LSU/Ole Miss SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK (Ole Miss -9) 

This could completely backfire if Ole Miss ends up playing this game without starting quarterback Matt Corral, but I think this line tells you the books feel pretty confident that he will be out there on Saturday. It almost feels like it's more of Lane Kiffin just being a troll by listing him on the injury report and trying to throw off the Tigers. 

You might be asking how you can bet against LSU as more than a TD dog after watching them just upset No. 20 Florida last week 49-42 as a 12.5-point dog. I just think that was more of a result of Florida just not coming to play. With all the guys the Tigers were going to be missing, everyone was calling for a Gators blowout. If you remember, that line moved a ton in favor of Florida leading up to that game. 

I also wonder if the LSU players didn't go into that game thinking it might the last time they got to play for head coach Ed Orgeron. It certainly seemed to mean a lot more to them. 

It would have been one thing if he was fired, but instead it will be Orgeron that finishes out the 2021 season as the guy in charge. It just feels a bit awkward to me that he's sticking around. 

Either way, when a team plays with that kind of emotion and energy in a game like LSU did last week against Florida, it's really hard to come back the next week with that same intensity, especially on the road. 

I just don't see LSU being able to go score for score with Ole Miss in this game. The Tigers secondary hasn't been great this year and they haven't played anything close to the caliber a passing attack as what Ole Miss brings to the table. If we can just a few stops from the Rebels defense, this is going to get really ugly in a hurry. Give me Ole Miss -9! 

40* (CFB) - Oklahoma St/Iowa St Big 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK (Iowa State -7) 

I'm pretty confident that if you were to bet unranked teams who are favored against a ranked opponent, you are going to profit long-term. There's 4 of them on the card this week (Wisconsin, ISU and Air Force are the other three). I'll have money on all 4, but one I really like is unranked Iowa State as a 7-point home favorite against No. 8 Oklahoma State.

This line sticks out like a sore thumb. You got the No. 8 team in the country getting a full touchdown a week after they went on the road and upset No. 25 ranked Texas 32-24 as a 3.5-point dog. 

Keep in mind the public is taking the bait. Everyone is on Oklahoma State and yet we have seen this line go up from -6.5 to -7. The books are flat out telling you who they think is going to cover. 

I can definitely see why the books are putting their stock in this Iowa State team. Since Matt Campbell took over the program, this is a team that year in and year out has only gotten better as the season progresses. 

I thought they played one of their best games of the season last week on the road against a good K-State team. While a spot in the playoffs is likely out of the picture, there's definitely a path back to the Big 12 title game for the Cyclones if they beat the Cowboys. 

I just don't think Oklahoma State is as good as their 6-0 start. Their best win so far is last week's victory against Texas. A game they trailed 17-3 early and were getting Texas in a great spot after the Longhorns had that epic collapse the week before against Oklahoma. 

I just think the Cowboys are really limited offensively and that's a problem against an elite Iowa State defense. Cyclones are only giving up 16.3 ppg, 251 ypg and 4.4 yards/play. They also only give up 2.8 yards/carry against the run and this is not a good passing attack for Oklahoma State. 

I know the Cowboys have a pretty good defense of their own, but this is very good Iowa State offense. Cyclones are averaging 33.7 ppg and that's against opponents that on average only give up 25.4 ppg. If Brock Purdy plays anything close to like he did last week against the Wildcats, this game will not be close. Give me Iowa State -7! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (UCLA -2) 

I'm pretty confident that if you were to bet unranked teams who are favored against a ranked opponent, you are going to profit long-term. There's 4 of them on the card this week (Wisconsin, ISU and Air Force are the other three). I'll have money on all 4, but the one I really like is UCLA as a 2-point home favorite against No. 10 Oregon. 

The Bruins have taken a big step forward in year 4 under Chip Kelly and it shows with UCLA's 5-2 ATS record thru their first 7 games. They are going to need some help from Arizona State, who they lost to outright in their head-to-head matchup (Sun Devils have a very favorable schedule going forward), but if they can win this game and upset Utah on the road next week, they got a legit shot at winning the Pac 12 South and playing in the title game. 

All I'm worried about is how they will play this week against the Ducks and I think they are going to deliver one of their better showings of the season. 

I'm just not a believer in this Oregon team. Part of it's my lack of trust in quarterback Anthony Brown, but even more so it's the injury to running back C.J. Verdell. If you remember back to their upset of Ohio State, it was Verdell that was the difference in that game. Hre rushed for 161 yards and 2 scores, while also leading the team with 3 catches for 34 yards and a score. 

I really think we learned a lot about Oregon going forward in last week's game against Cal at home. They won the game 24-17, but trailed 10-17 in the 4th quarter of that game. Keep in mind that was with the Ducks coming off a bye following a loss at Stanford. The right team is favored in this game. Give me UCLA -2! 

50* (CFB) Early Bird Saturday MAX UNIT Top Play (Syracuse +3.5) 

I'm a little shocked the Orange are catching more than a field goal on the road against the Hokies. It almost feels like there's this expectation that Syracuse is going to lay an egg after that tough loss to Clemson last week. 

I would maybe buy this being a letdown if they pulled off the upset, but the fact of the matter is they lost their third straight game and are now just 3-4 after starting out 3-1. Keep in mind all 4 losses have been by 10 or fewer. 

If the Orange are serious about making a bowl, this is one they really need to get and it's a game I think they should be favored to win. I don't like what I've seen out of this Hokies team this year. Virginia Tech has a so-so quarterback in Braxton Burmeister, no real threat of a running game and a injury-plagued defense. 

This is also a Hokies defense that has had problems stopping the run. That's a problem here. Syracuse has one of the best backs in the country in freshman Sean Tucker. He's rushed for 100 or more yards in each of the Orange's last 5 games and 6 of 7 overall, including 157 last week against an elite Clemson defense. They also recently made the move to Garrett Shrader at quarterback and he's shown he can run it. Prior to be helding in check by Clemson, he rushed for 178 against Wake Forest and 137 against FSU. 

That lackluster Va Tech offense will be up against a talented Syracuse defense that is giving up just 309 ypg and 4.7 yards/play. It just feels like the Hokies are getting a little too much respect here at home. Give me the Orange +3.5!