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Alex Smart Alex Smart
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 02, 2022
Diamondbacks vs Rockies
Rockies
-140 at SC Consensus
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Former Cy Young award winner Keuchel (2-5, 7.93)  was on the verge of being let go or reassigned by the  Chicago White Sox at the end of May after giving up six runs in back-to-back starts,  which pushed his  ERA to 7.88 on the season .

The Diamondbacks signed him to a minor-league deal on June 6, and he was recalled from Triple-A Reno on Sunday. He than got the call  against the visiting Detroit Tigers, allowing four runs and six hits in 4 1/3 innings of the 11-7 victory. This is a bad matchup for him today against a Colorado side that seems to play their best offensive baseball at the launching pad known as Coors Field. 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 02, 2022
Angels vs Astros
Angels
+142 at Ace
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

Halos starter Sandoval is 3-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP and  has been in top form of late allowing two or less runs in six of his last seven starts.  The Angels starter also owns a  viable looking .328 xwOBA, .259 xBA, and .401 xSLG and has the big gun to keep the marauding Astros hitters and offense at bay. 

Houston rocked the Angels yesterday 8-1 but Im expecting the downtrodden Angels to bounce back today.

LA ANGELS are 10-3  against the money line in road games after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 3-9  against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more this seaso

 MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (HOUSTON) - below average hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or less) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL are 42-65 L/25 seasons for a 61%  go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on LA Angels to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 02, 2022
Marlins vs Nationals
Nationals
+100 at BetVegas
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

Marlins starter Castano has logged 6 2/3 innings while going 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA vs the Nationals in his previous starts against them, and a rinse and repeat type situation is my bet here today. Meanwhile, Right-hander Jackson Tetreault (2-1, 4.24 ERA) goes to the hill for  the Nationals for his fourth career game, all starts. He won each of his last two outings, throwing a combined 13 innings while allowing four runs (one earned) and deserves respect here in the underdog role. 

Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Marlins are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) - a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a terrible team (38%) or less, in July games are 18-45 L25 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate.

Play on Washington Nationals to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 02, 2022
Padres vs Dodgers
Padres
+136 at SC Consensus
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

Anderson the Dodgers starter is off his first loss of the season last time out and Im betting he may suffer another registered loss here today vs the Padres. With Darvish who own s a 2.14 ERA in his L/3 starts  on the hill for the Padres Im betting they will be a tough out in this tilt. 

Padres have averaged 5.2 rpg on the road this season.


MELVIN is 14-4  against the money line after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse as the manager of SAN DIEGO.

SAN DIEGO is 18-5  against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game this season.

MLB team (LA DODGERS) - very good offensive team (5.0 or more  runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), in July games are 17-38 L/5 seasons for a go against  69% conversion rate. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (SAN DIEGO) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less), in July games are 27-14 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

Play on the SD Padres to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 02, 2022
A's vs Mariners
A's
+162 at Ace
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

As starter BLACKBURN is 6-1  against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record) BLACKBURN is 7-2 against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record) BLACKBURN is 6-1 against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +200 this season. Blackburn is 5-0 on the road this season while garnering a 1.44 ERA and gives his team viable edge here on the road on a value moneyline. 

SEATTLE is 7-14  against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 over the last 2 seasons. 

 OAKLAND is 9-3  against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Play on Oakland to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 02, 2022
White Sox vs Giants
Giants
-131 at linepros
Lost
$131.0
Play Type: Premium

Both these starters are in top form entering this tilt, however, here at home with a more consistent offense the Giants have the edge. 

Giants starter WEBB is 10-0  against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) WEBB is 16-3   against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) WEBB is 20-2  against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 62-14 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

MLB Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - good team, outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season, after getting shut out are 96-35 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on SF Giants to win 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.    

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.