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Alex Smart |
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Alex Smart Sports- Where winning means everything. |
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
WNBA | Jun 02, 2023 Aces vs Dream |
Dream +12½ -110 at Mirage |
Won $100 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 27 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | Jun 02, 2023 Cardinals vs Pirates |
Pirates +119 at circa |
Won $119 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
Pittsburghs starter CONTRERAS is 10-4 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) CONTRERAS is 9-1 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Cardinals are 7-20 in their last 27 during game 1 of a series. Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.Pirates are 11-4 in their last 15 vs. a team with a losing record MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ST LOUIS) - after allowing 2 runs or less against opponent after a win by 4 runs or more are 14-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Advantage Pittsburgh Pirates ( play to win) |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | Jun 02, 2023 Orioles vs Giants |
Orioles +145 at Ace |
Won $145 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
Kremer went 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in five May starts, not allowing more than three runs in any of them and gives his team a very good chance at pulling off an underdog win here vs the Giants and their top tier starter Logan Webb tonight. Orioles starter KREMER is 8-0 against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)KREMER is 15-1 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)KREMER is 9-2 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BALTIMORE is 12-2 against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 17-22 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 43-19 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Orioles to win |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | Jun 02, 2023 Yankees vs Dodgers |
Yankees +126 at Ace |
Lost $100.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
LA dodgers starter Kershaw (6-4, 3.32 ERA) will make his fifth career start against the Yankees. He does not have a win against them despite of a 1.67 ERA over 27 innings. Im betting he does not stay in tune with his previous efforts, as this version of the Yanks batting order own a .870 OPS against Kershaw in 140 plate appearances, With the Yanks sending right-hander Luis Severino (0-0, 1.59), to the hill for his third start of the season after a lat injury Im betting the Yanks have an edge on a value money line offering. Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (NY YANKEES) - allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 26-11 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NYY to win |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | Jun 02, 2023 Angels vs Astros |
Angels +117 at circa |
Lost $100.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
Right-hander Shohei Ohtani (5-1, 2.91 ERA) is the scheduled starter for the Angels on Friday. He leads the majors in opponent batting average (.155), ranks second in WHIP (0.95) and fourth in strikeouts (90) and offers value as an underdog vs a defending World Series Champion side that does not look as potent as it has in recent seasons. The Angels after a out control event yesterday, that saw Manager Nevin ejected fro arguing balls and strikes will be primed to for a bounce-back effort after losing 5-2 yesterday. Motivation factor will be key for a Halos victory. HOUSTON is 2-8 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like Astros starter Valdez. Play on the LAA to win |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | Jun 02, 2023 Phillies vs Nationals |
OVER 8½ -118 |
Won $100 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
We have two viable pitchers starting for each team (Gray vs Wheeler), but both bullpens are substandard as is their defenses. Its also going to be a hitters environment tonight as the wind is blowing out to center field with temps expected in the high 80s. With that said, Im betting this is value Totals offering that needs to be taken advantage of. Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Over is 19-6-2 in the last 27 meetings.Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Washington. MLB Home teams (WASHINGTON) - averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after a game they hit 4 or more home runs are 39-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | Jun 03, 2023 Rays vs Red Sox |
Red Sox -110 at BetVegas |
Won $100 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
After an extremely fast start to their season the Rays have finally cooled off as is evident by losing 8 of their L/11 games. Im betting on that regression to continue here today in Fenway vs a Red Sox team averaging 6 rpg at home this season. It must be noted the Boston's starting pitchers have allowed four or fewer earned runs in 12 of the past 14 games . Rays are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Bos sox starter Whitlock. BOSTON is 9-2 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League East. TAMPA BAY is 8-19 against the money line in road games in June games over the last 3 seasons. MLB Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - AL team with a high slugging percentage (.440 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or worse), cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 3 games and are 11-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate. Play on Boston to win |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | Jun 03, 2023 Yankees vs Dodgers |
Yankees -115 at linepros |
Won $100 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
Yankees starter COLE is 10-0 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. (Team's Record)COLE is 16-3 against the money line in road games in June games in his career. (Team's Record)Cole (6-0, 2.93 ERA) has not lost a game this season in 12 starts and gets the nod again. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will replay with M. Grove (0-1, 8.44 ERA) has been out since April 21 with a strained right groin and fade material until he can get himself back in a regular rotational groove. Note:Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter and are 12-2 in their last 14 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Yankees are 12-4 in their last 16 interleague games. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA DODGERS) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL) are 15-41 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rare for bettors. Play on NYY to win |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | Jun 03, 2023 Cardinals vs Pirates |
Pirates +125 at YouWager |
Won $125 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
On Saturday, St. Louis left-hander Jordan Montgomery (2-6, 4.48 ERA) and Pittsburgh right-hander Luis L. Ortiz (1-2, 4.35) are expected to start. Montgomery is tied for the team lead with five quality starts but is 0-6 with a 5.03 ERA over his past nine starts and Im betting his luck will continue to be bad here today vs a under rated Pittsburgh side off a win vs the Cards yesterday and playing at home. Cards lefty starter MONTGOMERY is 0-6 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record)MONTGOMERY is 1-9 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record) MONTGOMERY is 2-9 against the money line in the first half of the season this season. (Team's Record) MONTGOMERY is 2-7 against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Pirates are 9-4 in their last 13 games vs. a left-handed starter. PITTSBURGH is 14-4 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central. ST LOUIS is 7-12 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.MARMOL is 6-17 against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) as the manager of ST LOUIS. Play on Pittsburgh to win |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NHL | Jun 03, 2023 Panthers vs Golden Knights |
Golden Knights -123 at linepros |
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Play Type: Premium | ||
The Panthers enter this game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals with nine days off . Im betting alot of the momentum they gained during this play off run may well have worn of now , and will be hard thier star goalie Bobrovsky to get back on the flow he had during these play offs. I know Florida has won 7 of 8 road games in the play offs, but 5 of those games went to OT, and they were far from dominating . Meanwhile, Vegas is rested , but not to the extent of Florida and will more easily get into the flow of things here in game 1 on their own home ice where they garnered a 6-3 play off record and a overall 25-15-2 record this season. The key difference maker tonight will be in even man play as Vegas is averaging 3.42 even-strength goals per 60, ranking No,1 in the post season. Also Vegas netminder, Hill has been playing some of his best hockey of the season as he owns a 5-2 record, a 1.99 GAA and a .941 save percentage in his past seven tilts. VEGAS is 12-5 ATS as a # 1 seed in the playoffs this season.FLORIDA is 13-19 ATS in non-conference games this season. Golden Knights are 13-4 in their last 17 vs. Atlantic.Golden Knights are 18-6 in their last 24 home games.Golden Knights are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Play on Vegas to win |
SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 22 years. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). |