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Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports- Where winning means everything. Testing 15-3 all sports run including a longer term $75000.00 plus dime player run!
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Apr 17, 2024
Penguins vs Islanders
Penguins
-120 at circa
Lost
$120.0
Play Type: Premium

The Islanders have already clinched a play off spot and could rest as many as 5 players tonight so they don't risk injuries . This also the Isles 3rd game in 5 nights.  Meanwhile, the Pens still have a chance at a play off spot and must at least win this game to get their shot and Im betting they leave everything on the ice and grab the victory. 

NY ISLANDERS are 16-31 ATS (+49.2 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 5 days this season.

NHL Road Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (PITTSBURGH) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 5 or more goals, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season in the second half of the season are 113-52 L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Pens to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 17, 2024
Rangers vs Tigers
Tigers
-138 at SC Consensus
Lost
$138.0
Play Type: Premium

The Tigers were able to get redemption for a 1-0 loss in the series opener on Monday and grabbed a  4-2 victory on Tuesday afternoon by garnering  two runs in the eighth inning and get the nod again here today.

 Note: Texas starter DUNNING is 7-20  against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)DUNNING is 3-10   against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 0-9 against the money line in road games against AL Central opponents in his career. (Team's Record)  DUNNING is 4-18 against the money line in road games in the first half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 1-3 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.73 and a WHIP of 1.020.

Left-hander Tarik Skubal (2-0, 2.08 ERA) is expected to start the third game of the four-game set for Detroit against the Rangers. Skubal collected his second victory of the season on Friday when he held the Minnesota Twins scoreless for five innings and enters this game with momentum. SKUBAL is 7-1  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season in his career. (Team's Record) The Tigers bullpen also hasn't allowed a run over 5 2/3 innings in the series and Im betting will give Skubal the support he needs when and if he leaves this game. 

Considering Texas has scored two runs or fewer in four of the past six games their current from suggests their host has the advantage. 

Play on the Tigers to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 17, 2024
Heat vs 76ers
OVER 207 -105 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

My own projections estimate a combined score in the 211-to 214  range giving us a 2 possession edge to the over. I know Miami is a defense first team, but when pushed- which they will be- can light up the scoreboard with some offensive fireworks of their own. Note: The Heat have gone over in 9 of their L/10 overall.  

MIAMI L/77 games as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored. MIAMI in 7  road games revenging a home loss vs opponent this season have seen a combined average of 219 ppg scored ( Lost 109-105 to Phil on April 4th) MIAMI in L/ 44 games   when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. ( lost last two meetings)

MIAMI is 17-4 OVER  in April games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226.3 ppg scored. 

Nurse in 27 games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season as the coach of PHILADELPHIA has seen a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored.

PHILADELPHIA is 17-7 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 234.7 ppg scored.

NBA team (MIAMI) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half have seen a combined average of 227.7 ppg scored during a current 65 game sample size over the L/5 seasons. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more have seen a combined average of 213.5 ppg scored over a 233 sample size going back 27 seasons.

Play over

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 18, 2024
#Marlins vs #Cubs
#Cubs
-147 at YouWager
P
Play Type: Premium

 TAILLON is 2-0 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 0.54 and a WHIP of 1.260 with his team winning all 3 of his career starts vs the Marlins.The Cubs are expected to activate Taillon (back) from the 15-day injured list on Thursday morning so he will be fresh for this outing. Meanwhile, the Marlins, will start  left-hander A.J. Puk (0-3, 5.91 ERA).  Puk has lost his L/3 starts and has not gotten more than 2 runs of support in any of those tilts and Im betting he gets little help from his offense today. On the flip-side the Cubs have averaged 8.3 rpg vs lefties like the Marlins starter Puk .The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI) and get the nod here tonight. 

Play on the Cubs to win 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.    

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit).