During last year’s podcasts we came up with many buycollegefootball Predictions based on some of the mistakes that Vegas makes.  This is especially true in the lower conferences like the MAC Conference where Vegas was off by 10 or more points against the spread 71 times last year.  I make a point to talk about this in my podcasts about public perception and when Vegas thinks they can make money.  It typically happens after a bad loss or a bad win against the spread.  Before we look at what happened in 2015 lets take a look at who is favored to win this conference based on the college football odds.

After a Cover of 10+ATS:

College football against the spread in the MAC Conference has some interesting statistics.  When we look at the following week after a team covered the spread by more than 10 points.  MAC teams went a combined 18-17-3 ATS which on the surface does not look like a great advantage for anyone.  It looks perfectly normal, but we looked at teams over .500 vs. teams under .500 and the results are staggering and make a lot of sense.

Teams who finished with a record over .500 went 18-9 ATS the following week.  Akron went 1-1, Bowling Green went 5-1, Ohio went 4-1 ATS following a win ATS of 10+, Western Michigan went 2-2, Toledo went 4-2, Central Michigan went 4-1.  Teams likely to finish in this category this year according to win total odds are: Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Ohio, Bowling Green, Central Michigan and Toledo.  If these teams come off a big win ATS we should back them the following week or at least look at them.  They are better than Vegas will give credit.

Teams who finished with a record below .500 went 0-8-2 ATS the following week that they beat a team by more than Vegas expected (10 or more points ATS).  If any of the following teams come up with a big win ATS of more than 10 points against the spread.  We will look to fade them the next week.  Teams to fade: Buffalo, Akron, Ball State, Kent State, Miami (Ohio), Eastern Michigan.  That’s not to say they are automatically a play, because I actually like Kent State to get into a bowl game this year, but the others I expect to fall below .500.

After a LOSS of 10+ATS:

In the MAC it was not as big of a different if a team lost by 10 or more.  It was much harder to find value with teams going 19-15 ATS the following week after losing by 10 or more.  Although teams with winning records went 9-5-1 ATS.  Teams to back in this situation would be Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Ohio, Bowling Green, Central Michigan and Toledo in 2016.

The post Vegas Makes Mistakes – MAC Conference Margin of Victory ATS Analysis appeared first on Sports Bet Capping – Where Records Don’t Lie.

Vegas Makes Mistakes – MAC Conference Margin of Victory ATS Analysis
Vegas Makes Mistakes – MAC Conference Margin of Victory ATS Analysis

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